Well, a new war with an old foe. Honestly, I am surprised that it took this long.
I believe that the reason that we have not tangled with them to date is that there was nothing in that country which we really cared to bomb. Nothing there, but irritation, at some of their terroristic antics behind the scenes. Until now.
With that, I have asked and answered myself a few FAQs of which surround large speculation. I am always willing to add my own, as follows:
Question 1: Does Iran have nuclear weapons?
While certainly not privy to anything that would confirm so, we are in the familiar position of trusting the intel. Intelligence is normally a 60% solution of ground truth, at most actionable, and obviously Israel knew something that I do not, as they were confident enough about it to launch.
The presence of “signature items and indicators” is what forms the basis for actionable intelligence. Indicators are things that lead to conclusion when taken in context and order, strung together, to form a possible to likely picture. Indicators are there, and fairly numerous. The one that stands out the most is the denial of access to UN inspectors. Red flags, enough of which lined up in a row point to conclusion.
The signature item is something that defines its own context- and is something that can only be for one purpose. Those are the amount of radioactive material, and the production facilities. I mean really, they are not making baby food there. It looks better than 60% to me.
2: Is what Israel doing effective?
Yes, and maybe not. Their targeting process was remarkable, and the Israelis are very good at the collection and targeting game. The production facilities were “sore thumbs” sticking out so much that I would not be surprised if they painted bullseye targets on the roofs.
As well, the elimination of the rocket launch pads. This is a much heavier lift than hitting a fixed sight, as launchers tend to move about. There are methods to make this more certain, and the Iranians have helped out a great deal by using these launchers, and in doing so giving away their position. I cannot really say more than that, but an active launch site is much easier to strike, than one that is idle and hidden.
Air superiority is a wonderful thing, allowing one side to have the other at their total mercy. Israel can bomb Iran at will, to the literal “stone age”- but Iran pretty much already lives in that place already and are very comfortable with stones.
The maybe not- is what happens next after the air campaign has been exhausted, and there are no more targets.
3. Will the air campaign be decisive?
No. Air campaigns will not bring about capitulation, only make life miserable for those on the business end. Again, Iran is a miserable place, and miserable people live there that are used to being miserable. The only way an air campaign can bring about capitulation is if the people in the country elect the regime change option, i.e insurrection and revolution. Otherwise, with the current leadership of Iran, whatever is left of that place, will have the same type of regime.
4. What will be decisive, and force regime change?
Ground force invasion and occupation. Nothing in the world can be held onto, unless there is a fellow there with a rifle that is willing to defend it. Period. Air is great, but ground is final.
5. Will there be a ground invasion?
Not from Israel. The issue that Israel has is not one of from capability, but one from location and logistics. They have two countries, Muslim countries- between themselves and Iran, and as much as the Saudis and the Jordanians dislike Iran, I cannot be convinced that they will allow a Jewish army to cross those lands to get at anyplace, even if it was fighting Satan itself.
Ground action requires ground or seaborne staging areas, and those do not exist. (think of Kuwait during OIF, Great Britian during WW2) the airborne option is one for limited capability, but it is not sustainable logistically.
6. What will the US do to help Israel?
I’d rather expect that the bunker busting bomb is coming, if the cold shoulder routine continues from Iran. If Fordow is the last target that must be liquified, then it will be. Something to watch about this, which will be interesting, is if we share that technology with Israel, or we do it ourselves.
7. What is the possibility of US intervention?
I don’t think that much. I actually believe that we are really liking this air campaign business, and think that it is showy enough that we are good stopping there.
There is a culmination point with Israel, which will cause operations to slow until support arrives, but since Iran is about at their own culmination point this moment, Israel can take its time. If Israel reaches that point, and more targets need servicing, we’ll send them some stuff, and help out with advisors.
Likewise, depending on how Iran’s rhetoric offends the Oval Office, we may fly over and drop a few ourselves. I rather believe that we ought to have done that after 7 October 23, what I called “Libya 86 on steroids” but then my main concern was being at a place which we are now, with Israel taking the lead, adding to their host of security problems. Now that they have started the whole business, US fly over and bomb intervention is not as strong US national security statement, as it would have been on 8 October 23.
I do not think we will entertain ground invasion, even though we are the only ones that could do so, in terms of staging areas and logistics. There are a few developments that could change such a thing, but this moment, I see it as very unlikely.
8. What else?
I am somewhat surprised that a couple of F35s shot down, and cannot figure out how that happened, or if the sales pitch of that rather expensive aircraft was a great deal more hat than cowboy. There will be some repercussions to this one, when it is talked on later, that will affect the taxpayer dollar, good or bad.
The weakness or weaknesses of Iron Dome will be analyzed and likely exploited in a biblical future tense. The one thing I know about that region militarily, is that our weaker enemies generally excel at reconnaissance. Are not that great in execution, but they do know what’s what, and plan based upon that analysis. I guess they have to do this, weaker forces need an edge, someplace.
That the critical decisive point for Iran is when they run out of rockets, which is coming. This culmination point is what everything is turned upon, as you cannot fight an enemy if you cannot reach them. Pay attention to the number of rockets they shoot per iteration, and what I have seen is that number is decreasing. The indicator there is that they are either short of launchers or rockets, and either at this point are pretty critical to Iran.
Conclusion:
My expectation is that Iran will squat and hold to their borders and enjoy all of the discomforts that being an Iranian entail. Double down on the rhetoric, try to get other rouge nations involved, with mixed success that borders on little to none. Russia and China doesn’t want them nuclear capable, either.
The thing that will be real, is that they can and will go back into their wheelhouse and do what they do as well or better than anyone else in the world. This is that surprise terror type attack against a soft civilian target. This attack may be in Israel, but if so – it is a lessor statement. They will want to go big- and we know who and where the big guys live.