This one is going to be tough.
While I was in the Stan, two Taliban Commanders were forcibly violating the same woman in a town outside of Kandahar. I think it was Kandahar, it always seemed like it was Kandahar. The trouble was, that neither knew the other was doing so, and when they found out, they were angry. Not at each other, as one would expect- but at the woman they were raping. They were so angry that they put her in a field, in full burka and on her knees, and then they took turns shooting her with AK 47s. They did so methodically and alternatively firing one round at a time, like target practice. Bang…………bang…….
I believe it was the 7th or 8th round that struck her in the spine and caused her to fall over. She reminded me of Joan of Arc, on her knees as if in prayer; she did not move or wince, shudder, or register the impact of the rounds previous to 8 and seemed resigned and stoic as far as I could tell from outside the burka, until she could not any longer.
The gunmen did not stop on the 8th round, The magazine on these rifles holds 30 rounds. They made a big game if it. The whole event was broadcasted on the local news, as the Taliban were proud of what they did.
This is life under the Taliban.
I watched this in our little office in the Ministry of the Interior, between meetings with my Afghan Generals, and intellectualized, analyzed, and pontificated on the reasons the Taliban broadcasted this and why they were proud of what they had accomplished. I know is a coping mechanism of mine and for those like me, to build a fortification of intellectualism and detach from such ugliness.
In the room with me, was one of our native “Terps”, who I hope is out of the country. Good fellow, smart, dedicated. Good friend and capable advisor. His reaction was not as sanitized or intellectual as mine. If he is not out of the country, his fate will be worse than hers.
True to form, I am constructing such a fortification this minute, and will attempt to explain what is happening and why it is unfolding this way.
The Afghans are a country with alliances that begin at family as the most important, then to enclave, to tribe, to allies of the tribe, to the “deal” that they are getting, and then lastly to a secure and prosperous country of Afghanistan. The tribal connection is important, as the Tajiks don’t really care for the Uzbeks, who are indifferent to the Hazaras, and no one really likes the Pashtuns, except other Pashtuns. I don’t really think Pashtuns like other Pashtuns. There are more players, I think maybe a dozen tribes in total, and none really get along. No one is “woke” in the stan.
This team of rivals would not cooperate with one another, except for the deal that was presented to them by the US, and the deal has sanctity- and served to be common ground for all those tribal factions who had respect for the deal. As long as the US was at the table, and had the deal, the Afghans would cooperate. That is how, and only how, only 5000 US troops can hold an entire country, through the strength of the deal.
As a comparison, imagine a team of individuals in the US, seated around the table trying to forward an issue considered more important than one’s own cause or tribe. Among these members, is a banker, a farmer, an atheist, a preacher, a lawyer, a politician, a soldier, a member of Antifa, a BLM activist, and a card-carrying member of the Klan. The best case in this situation is remarkable indifference to each other, the worst case being absolute hatred. Not much could be expected in terms of cooperation from a team so assembled, the distraction would be overpowering. Some interest with more power would have to also be present. Let’s say, they show- they get paid. A lot.
Even with the tensions at the table, if a single and primary interest is being catered to, the most common one being money- the more the better- then the committee will meet. If the money man declares one day “I’m out”- the tensions among the group will overcome the inertia of whatever has been gained to date. In-fighting and differences would be overwhelming at this point, and the committee rapidly dissolves, and goes back to their own tribe, as the once secondary, but now primary interest. Antifa and BLM may hang together, the preacher and the farmer, maybe- the rest becomes islands by themselves, isolated and hateful; possibly contemplating violence- and gauging how the other tribes would be fixed to respond if they did.
This is exactly what is happening in Afghanistan. So divided, the groups are easy to be overcome by any centralized majority force, regardless of how despicable their ideology entails. Those that are returning to tribes that are weak, are defecting and joining the Taliban. This is how the Taliban is being able to regenerate so quickly, and while yesterday they were thought to be dangerous to the capital in 90 days- and now Kabul will fall in a matter of days. Recruitment is going well for the Taliban.
How is this possible? If presented with a choice with only two options, join the Klan, or your family will be murdered in front of you, Klan recruitment will be very strong. This is how the Klan/ Taliban ends up conquering a country- not by ideology, but by mathematics.
Those that were in authority in Afghanistan, the individuals that I worked with have these two choices at this point, at best. Bring your people to us, or your family will be sacrificed. The ones that positioned themselves properly and respected the deal- and respected the deal too much by embezzling money and moving it to UAE, are already out of the country. In fairness, they believed some time ago what is happening today as possible- rightly so- and would not have any other choice, today. They are the smart ones, by having constant suspicion in respect to US resolve.
Money was important over there and was likely the most important aspect of the deal, but there were other things where US presence solidified the factions. Prestige, partnership, ambition, position, and a good amount of plain old-fashioned patriotism. There were many that I interacted with that believed that they had this one chance to see to a prosperous and peaceful country where they could raise their children in a society that valued them, and not make them beholden to a fascist religious state. These ideologs have our respect, and we who are like minded should be fearful for them. They believed in us.
What is left, are those including the ideologs that did not respect the deal, enough. The Afghan soldier will fight, and is good at fighting, but if his leadership is already in Dubai, how much heart does he have in doing so? He does not have a deal, for things like ammunition or medicine, and is fighting with one eye on what is behind him, while anticipating the next betrayal. If I, were he, this minute, and my priority is family, enclave, tribe, etc., when do I take that new deal and become a Talibklansman?
I would be remiss if I did not mention that this circumstance is exactly what Osama Bin Laden envisioned and wished for. He could have gone anywhere in the world and started this Jihad, but he chose Afghanistan for exactly this reason. He knew his goal would work here. Smart. He also knew that he would not survive and that dead his legend would become more useful. Bin Laden expected that the world would become tired, that the chink in the armor of the US is that the tide turns politically, and we take our deal with us. We did.
Seeing what we see today, it is not difficult to concede that Osama Bin Laden was a brilliant man. Evil, despicable, but brilliant. Ultimately, he left little to chance.
Where that leaves us, is clearly the last twenty years has not been worth the investment. Would have it been better to have shrugged off the 9/11 attacks and not responded at all? The likely outcome of such a shrug would have been further attacks that would make 9/11 look like a playground fight. Now, after we withdrawal: Bin Laden’s vision realized, his portrait hanging in every home in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world, with his agency properly invigorated with a new deal that they all can get behind- if or when will we see another attack on the homeland? Smart money says “when” and “soon”.
Our lot is cast in Afghanistan, for better or worse. We lost this war, and I helped us lose it. If we reverse this policy, and go back in, we are essentially starting at step 1, or best-case step 1 and a half. We do need to study on this one though, because the catalyst, the origin, the inertia, is alive and well in the tribal factionalism within our own country, and while not Tajiks and Pashtuns, we have diametrically opposed tribes like Antifa and the F.O.P.
Today, don’t most of our interests start with family, through tribe, “the deal”, with the country as a distant last? If things proceed this way, and in this country one scenario says that it won’t be that many years before we find ourselves kneeling in a field wearing burkas and waiting to hear the rifle crack.