Well, that escalated quickly.
So quickly, in fact, that before I could complete my literary churn, something happened that caused the world to turn on its heals, making the first analysis obsolete. Likewise, the second, and third. These hard right and left pivots are difficult for we in the semi-professional philosopher business.
The first piece (now obsolete) was whimsically entitled, “The Mumble heard ‘round the world”, the next “Friends, Romans, lend me your Ear”, and the last, did not have a pithy title, as much as it was comment relative to my essay of last year of “Why Republicans are going to lose.”
So, I’m going to hit the whitecaps if you will, because I have no idea what tomorrow will bring. Let us start from Left to Right.
The Democrats.
I have never seen a body of people so very fearful of their opponent than the Democrats are this minute. Fearful is the term that I used, and I did use it intentionally. What I am having difficulty with, is what it is exactly that they are so afraid?
There can be no repeat of January 6th, as the gentleman would be term limited. Certainly, they are fearful, that it is their brand of democracy that is threatened, at least in the short term. They have said so, in nearly those terms.
The Threat to Democracy.
Certainly, a populist candidate that is a nationalist, isolationist, benefactor of a strong military, strong police forces, uses the realistic philosophy as their approach to international relations, have historically in some European incidences changed the fabric of a constitutional republic. This has always been something that we have seen elsewhere, the slow and steady descent into authoritarianism- stormtroopers and police arresting citizens for sedition, with nationalist group think being the only acceptable discourse.
With Mr. Trump, whose followers are exceptionally dedicated almost to religious extremes, this imagery is what the Democrats are using as motivation to their base. Never in my lifetime, has a candidate been so polarizing, his followers so passionate, and because he is a nationalist/ centrist; the thinking is that such a dystopian state could be a future reality.
The U.S. political model is one of checks and balances, of compromise and politics, expects interactions by rivals that do not want the same outcomes. Leverage against party position, and counter leverage to obtain a sense of balance, is what this country uses to deflect any unnatural assimilation into a fascist type nation state.
Normalized political discourse, that emphasizes compromise provides this balance. Chief Executives elected from a party platform, will tilt this balance right, or left, based upon the preferences of 51% of the populace. The other platform, through political art, leverages against any disastrous outcome. That is, if there is mutual respect of the opposing side, and not all or nothing platforms unwilling to compromise.
If the country swings hard to the right, then such a state of Nationalism/ fascism is possible, which clearly is a threat to our democratic principles. But……
This same threat exists if we take a similarly all in hard turn to the left, as at that point the nation risks control by an oligarchy of elite socialist actors, and as such likewise just as grave a threat to those democratic principles. Obligation to the party, instead of the dear ruler- but otherwise, group think, weaponized justice systems, penalties for those who do not conform, measures and half measures applied to ensure that the people are dependent upon the government- and therefore the party- for everything.
I will pause here a moment, and ask which side is closer and more likely to affect the such a disastrous turn- left or right? Were we closer to fascism in 2020, than we are socialism in 2024?
All said, the trick is to keep the ball in play, on the field, and not allow such division to force it off to the left or right. In other words, checks and balances. Politicians are supposed to compromise, and within this country this moment, that is likely the least possible, as the hateful rhetoric spewed from either side labels the artful compromising agent as a “collaborator”. The Elected must be extreme to maintain their constituency. Obviously, and absent a force to push it back into the center(ish), either case, left or right, is a legitimate threat to democracy.
All said, the rhetoric that the Dems are using in terms of a “threat to democracy” is in its own right, just as great a threat as any hellish scenario that they are predicting within a Trump presidency. Did this, does this, or will this give legitimacy to any form of violence a radical actor could employ to avoid such a possibility? Uh, yeah.
The Big Three
The three things that the Democrats possessed last year, that they may have lost their handle on are: solidarity, dominating the narrative, and tolerance/ insulation from an untruthful position. I wrote last year that the Republicans were going to lose this election because they did not possess any of these attributes, and frankly this has changed, at least at this writing.
The most untruthful position that has now disabused the Democratic base is the competency of the man that they loyally stood behind for the last three and a half years. Highlighted by the “mumble heard ‘round the world”, (Mr. Biden’s debate performance) has truly shaken their confidence, in what they have been told well before, or also and likely well before the mumbling began.
Of course this shakes the confidence the people have in the party. The debate performance was not the first time that he had such a lapse- but we were told that he was sound, over and over again. So, the narrative is- “what else are they lying about?”
The aftermath of this realization is that the party did divide but did so incrementally and carefully. Those that had the most to gain, that may be eyeing the big chair themselves, stayed in the shadows, as nobody wanted to be the first to say what they all thought out loud, but when they did, it was over for Mr. Biden.
The press, that ignored any suggestion of unfitness, turned to gotcha journalism. Donors voted with their feet. The party attempted to show the world that the issue was contained, until the force of its momentum carried it so powerfully that the defections which began first as a trickle, progressed to dozens at a time. This truly dismantled the solidarity that the Democrats have displayed as their hallmark quality.
With the loss of credibility and solidarity, the Democrats are having difficulty now dominating the narrative. They have turned, nearly to a man (and woman) to painting cataclysmic scenarios and the oft used, and never successful Republican habit of basing their narrative solely on fear. “This country is going to hell in a handbasket.” Or…… say it with me now, “threat to democracy.”
So, now the Democrats will have to pick a new champion as the savior to the cause. Early reports make this look to be Ms. Harris. Will the engine that is the party all line up behind her, regain that solidarity? Or will one, then two, then a dozen, then several dozen start to break ranks and begin to question what they have been told as untruthful? Someone possibly with something else to gain? Something disguised, and likely not totally honest, will be placed to her front that will shake the party again? I think so, maybe. Likely.
Certainly not a criticism of Ms. Harris. She has a tall hill to climb, generate a platform and do so quickly, organize a campaign and do so more quickly, live down any misstep from the last 3 ½, consolidate the party and achieve solidarity, and then somehow navigate through it all and obtain the official nomination. I do not think she, or anyone else on that limited Democratic bench has the wasta to make that happen.
The Republicans.
The Republicans have the high ground this minute, but they always have a hard time holding unto it. They have come a very long way in the last year, the symbolism is there, the Dems have a very poor handle on being the tough guy; and look small and petty standing next to Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump
Mr. Trump is not a nice man, and the least political of any political figure that we have ever seen. Personally, I have trouble hearing him speak, as the bombast and braggadocios nature of the man I find to be off putting and not truly dignified.
I have come to realize, that possibly this lack of humility is more of an inner dialog, that is such a force within him that it does become external. If I were to consider the lengths that the political system has gone to keep him at bay, and his drive to overcome those obstacles, I legitimately know no other human that could take such a relentless beating and still keep coming.
False social media narratives, Russian collusion, political freeze outs, impeachments x 2, overwhelming rehash exploiting past missteps, court cases, assassination attempt, (possibly attempts); no other human in the history of this country has had to overcome more. I for one would have had to question my inner dialog, question if it was worth it, and I have no doubt that my answer would be “no.” Mr. Trump’s response was a fist in the air, and the word “fight!”
Mr. Trump may be an ugly American, and possibly the ugliest American, but based upon this resiliency and tenacity alone, there can be no doubt that he is a great American. He just keeps coming.
Solidarity.
In terms of maintaining solidarity, that is a real question, and the answer is quite mathematical. I have written this before, but if an equal number of voters are given a grade, 1 being the most liberal, and 10 being the most conservative, the Republicans must lock down every voter graded from 6-10, as well as 1% of the 5s to win the election. The Democrats, likewise, all of the 1-5s, and 1% of the 6s. There are some problems that the Republicans will have, keeping all of the 6s and getting that 1% of the 5s.
Firstly, whomever is the Democratic champion, will be able to campaign on the presumptive, while the Republicans will have to defend their record. That is, what the Republicans actually did from 16-20, and what the new fellow promises to do, in theory more or less, even if it is an outright falsehood, for 2025 and beyond.
Ms. Harris will have the hardest time doing so, as part of the previous ticket, she will either have to forcibly defend the Biden administration’s record, or aggressively part from him, adding the final insult to Mr. Biden’s performance. For this reason alone, I think it will be someone else.
Narrative.
To succeed, the Republicans must get the moderates, and I have not seen a narrative or messaging designed for their purposes. I also did not see it in 20, and this is what sunk the Republican cause, and if the narrative is the same, and the voters are the same, then the result will likely be the same.
The Republicans have had and still do have problems controlling the narrative. Mr. Trump’s acceptance speech at the RNC was supposed to be about unity, but his inner dialog turned external may not have hit the unity part quite hard enough. Absent unity, as discussed before, will make it harder to get that 1% of the 5’s.
Recommendations.
For the Democrats, they need to settle on a candidate and do so quickly, so they can start to build a campaign and regain solidarity. If they have adventure there, they will be as lost like last year’s Easter egg.
For Republicans, they need to court the moderates, and ease up a bit on the forceful rhetoric that the base loves so much. Expand, explain, accommodate. Moderates do not respond to uber nationalist narrative. Start with inflation and work your way back to that, carefully.
For Americans, it is too late for this cycle, but we need to examine at the grassroots level, what we expect from our elected leaders and government. If there is no compromise, or room for compromise, if we are as divided as we are this moment, then politics will be hateful, and within the hateful a Chief Executive respected by the whole people will not be possible. If we stay this divided, reject any potential leader that wishes to cross the aisle as a collaborator or traitor, this shouting, fear mongering, lowest of the low brow politic is what we as Americans must get used to.