Well, that escalated quickly. I really do not believe it was a surprise to either side, and each did exactly what they had intended.
Mr. Zelenskyy played his part admirably. It has been said that Trump/ Vance ambushed him at the conference, but really Mr. Zelenskyy did a little ambushing himself. He is playing chess, as well, and not checkers, as the Republican loyal would have you believe.
He tried to involve us, tugging at our heart strings, energizing our emotions, something to his credit that he has done well for three years. Likely to the point that he is exhausted in doing so, as his frustration was evident, but he knew that he would have a moment on the world stage if thrown out, and he counted on such a reception.
It did get energy. Not likely because we are motivated to get behind him, and give him whatever he wants- rather the 49% of our country intensely dislike the fellow that told him no. The country is terribly divided, and it is getting worse, and any policy that Mr. Trump is behind, a large part of the country will automatically take the opposite view, and do so emphatically, at least in social media.
As emotional as this is for us, as we see the same underdog spirit in Ukraine that we see in Isreal, is that the U.S. cannot be on the hook to bring any other nation into a legitimate, modern war fighting force. Mr. Putin is not a nice man, and is a tailor-made enemy to our values and standards, even though such standards have been corrupted and are somewhat unrecognizable because of the division within the U.S.
Why he did what he did when he met with Mr. Trump- knowing that Trump’s heart was not in it, was to energize an alternative base of supports, namely the Europeans, and I think here is where he also succeeded. They have a closer view to the “what ifs” then we do, or really can, as they are much closer on the ground than we can ever be. If Ukraine is dismantled, the European nations believe that they could be next.
I must agree that such a thing is possible, although the Russians did learn a thing or two from this fight, and doubt they’ll be game for another. They just do not have the chops. Not when they have to cross the entire NATO, with the U.S. involved, as we must be if a member is attacked. Both Putin and Trump know this.
I’ve written about this before and believe it now- that the Ukrainian war as it stands now is unwinnable. Peace that preserves his position and station is what Mr. Zelenskyy ought to be aiming towards. It is his only recourse to survive.
We spend money in our own defense and have the responsibility to prop up the Armies in the remainder of the world- one country at a time- is not realistic. So, the U.S. options are to escalate, or to find a peaceful solution.
This peaceful solution is the ground that the Russians want, and the Ukrainians have been fighting for internally for eight years to hold onto prior to the war. Donbas is the prize.
Donbas has been resisting Ukrainian rule since 2014. They would rather be Russian, and I think that Zelenskyy would rather they be Russian, too, except for the economic gravity within that region. Big time coal and energy resources in Donbas.
So, the huge question is, if we put on our strategic hats, is can Donbas be retaken, and the Russians pushed back into Russia? The answer to that question is that it cannot. Not without foreign intervention, offensive weapons, boots on the ground, and escalating a real war, including the possibly of nuclear intervention, within that theater.
No one is willing to do this. We are willing to put make statements as “I stand with Ukraine”, but we are not willing to actually send our sons and daughters to go and fight the Russians on that ground. We are, or at least were, willing to send billions of dollars on defensive weapons, which did manage to halt the advance, but has caused this stalemate that we are seeing now and have seen for the last year or so.
I have no idea if any of the European countries are willing to do this, either. I doubt it very much, but I would think that even if they could muster one, two, or even ten countries willing to escalate and place their formations there for offensive purposes, it wouldn’t make any difference. Russia would receive these new troops, enough ground would not be gained, and a stalemate would go on. The ratio of troops to task needed does not exist outside of U.S intervention.
So, escalation is really out of the question. Support that drives and holds onto the stalemate is possible, but with cost, and risk, definitely. Peace is the only answer, and peace requires concession. It requires Donbas.
Europeans have, or are working on a solution for a cease fire, and peace, that they can get behind, but it involves NATO “Peace Keepers” be placed between the two combatants. Putin is not going to agree to that, it would be a de facto and informal admission of Ukraine to NATO, and that is strategic Putin’s second interest after Donbas- distance- a buffer; between NATO and the Russian homeland. If villainous, it is still reasonable for him to think this way for a number of reasons.
Let us think that if the war goes on for three more years, or three more minutes, that stalemate is the only outcome, and without U.S. involvement, it is. We are not going to tangle with the Russians so Ukraine can keep Donbas.
If we know this, and everyone else knows this as well, why should the fight go on for three more years? If every possible possible outcome is exactly the same, the only outcome- why should the fighting continue? Every individual- soldier and civilian- who dies between now and the end of the war could be saved, and since negotiated peace is the only possible conclusion, the war must end, and end quickly.
Of course, of all the nations involved, the U.S. will bear the blame and act as the scapegoat. The world knows that restoration is not possible without the big stick, and no one else has one that is large enough. I will submit that if a European country actually puts boots on the ground, actually deploys their units into combat operations, then they have earned the right to criticize the U.S., but no one is going to do that. Not over Donbas. Not over Ukraine. They can and will buy coal from the Russians just as easily as they can from Ukraine.
The war is over. If Mr. Zelenskyy denies it is, then he’ll lose a great deal more than Donbas.